529 or Status Quo? Investing in your Kids

The subject of the 529 comes up a lot. It is a tax-advantaged way to invest with your child’s education being the sole focus. However, there is a good case to be made for skipping the 529 altogether and making your investments for the kiddos mirror your current investment strategy. Of course, if you are a “fire and forget” investor and simplicity is your biggest consideration, then a 529 is probably just the ticket for you.

What is a 529?

As stated before, the 529 is a tax-advantaged investing/savings vehicle that is used to pay for college, high school, or vocational education for dependents. The investor (you) is able to select a beneficiary (in most cases, your child) and can change that beneficiary once a year to another eligible beneficiary (see the investopedia.com article below for more on that). Even though it is named for a section of the Federal Tax Code, 529’s are offered from each of the 50 states, subject to state law, and those laws vary from state to state.

The Two Options

When you open a 529 you have two options:

  1. A 529 Savings Plan (most common)
  2. Prepaid Tuition

The Savings Plan

The savings plan works very similarly to a Traditional IRA. The contributions are tax-deferred until they are withdrawn, and can be used for “qualified educational expenses”.

Prepaid Tuition

The Prepaid Tuition option is more like a futures contract. For this option to make sense, you need to know which institution your child will be attending. The benefit here is that colleges and private schools typically raise tuition every year, so with the 529 you can lock in the tuition rate of the current year and as long as the tuition is higher when the child attends, you win. The downside here should be obvious: if your child decides not to attend the institution you picked for them, you will be subject to penalties when you go to withdraw your money, but kids never do stuff like that.

The Tax Advantages

We’ve already mentioned the tax-deferral for 529 contributions, but there are also a few others.

  1. In some states, for college tuition, withdrawals are tax deductible for state income taxes, 529 withdrawals are not tax-deductible for federal income taxes.
  2. For K-12, the same applies.
  3. For “qualified education expenses”, withdrawals are tax-exempt
  4. For K-12, the same applies, but there is currently a $10,000 limit

Remember that for any tax deductions to take effect, you must be enrolled in your state of residence’s 529 plan.

So Why Wouldn’t You Want a 529?

Like we said, for the “fire and forget” investor, the 529 is probably the way to go. However, if you take an active interest in your portfolio, the 529 might not be the best plan. Here’s why.

The 529’s are different for each state, but in general what is offered is a collection of mutual funds that will either track, or slightly under-perform against the market as a whole. They might also be life-cycle funds, which automatically reduce their stock exposure as the target date approaches. Funds that track the market are fine, and if that’s what you were going to put your kid’s college fund in anyway, then the 529 becomes obvious. However, if you are searching for more aggressive investments, or if you simply want more flexibility, then mirroring your own portfolio may be the way to go. Remember that the government’s Thrift Savings Plan, with all its tax benefits, can be wholly beaten by a rate of return less than 1.0% greater over 30 years. There is also the obvious risk that your child receives a scholarship and does not need tuition paid for, or they might not go to college at all. In those cases, in order to get your money back, you must pay all the taxes you owe, and a 10% penalty.

Conclusion

For most of us, the 529 is certainly worth considering. There are risks involved in both strategies, but for most people those risks will not materialize. Either way, if your intention is to reduce your financial burden during those college years, better to start now rather than later. (And yes, you can open a 529 for unborn children).

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/529plan.asp

Coronavirus vs. Influenza: Deathmatch

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down ~1.9% today on fears of the Coronavirus in China. This is the second session of panic sales this week due to the outbreak.

This is certainly concerning, however the damage wrought by influenza right here in the US does seem to put our fears in perspective. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/01/24/coronavirus-versus-flu-influenza-deadlier-than-wuhan-china-disease/4564133002/

This article in USA Today points out that while 4,000 cases of Coronavirus have been detected, 800 have been made ill, and 26 have died, during the same winter there were over 13 million cases of influenza in the US. This left 120,000 in the hospital and 6,600 dead. Both of these facts are tragic, but the stark contrast does seem to highlight the effects of disproportionate media coverage on certain issues and how it may affect the markets as a whole.

The Bucket Model of Roth IRA’s (and Your Other Accounts, Too)

Yesterday, a friend asked about how to get a Roth IRA started, and it was clear that there were a few points that were misunderstood when it came to investing for retirement. Since these very questions are about 80% of the ones I get asked in the College of Financial Knowledge, I decided to post my thoughts here.

A Roth IRA is just an account with special rules. I think of different accounts like buckets. Each account (checking, savings, Roth, Individual Brokerage…etc.) has its own special rules, for tax purposes. When you contribute to a Roth IRA you are making a declaration about that money, which is “this money will not be used until I am 59 1/2 years old”. In return, the government allows you to pay taxes on the money upfront, and does not charge you capital gains on the back end, saving you about 15% of your portfolio value at maturity.

Remember, opening up a Roth IRA doesn’t do anything. You now just have an empty bucket. You need to put things in it. I’ve heard too many people say that they have “invested in a Roth IRA” to let this point go without emphasis. So what do you put in it? This brings to light the question of individual stocks, ETF’s, and mutual funds. A mutual fund is just an aggregate of several different stocks and/or bonds in a particular sector, I.e. technology. You usually get about 30 in a fund. Thus, you are pretty much instantly diversified. For that privilege you pay something called an “expense ratio”. Vanguard has very low expense ratios which is great. However, before you dive into mutual funds you might want to look into something called an ETF, or Exchange Traded Fund. They are like mutual funds in every way except they are traded in real time and have better tax consequences. Simply put, it beats the mutual fund with no real downsides. I like to think of them as the mutual funds of the future.

Before you go off and put your coffee can full of cash into a Roth IRA, there are more rules. Most importantly, most people can only contribute $6000 per year towards a Roth (in 2020), so make sure your combined contributions don’t exceed that; check the IRS rules for your particular limit. The last point is the fun part: within the “bucket” of your Roth you can trade stocks without tax consequences AS LONG AS the money does not leave the account. This is not true for any other investment. Enjoy.

My Favorite Argument Du Jour: Should you Sell Some of Your AAPL Shares?

Here is an interesting article from Barron’s about AAPL’s massive 2019 success and the debate on whether or not to sell and harvest gains, then wait for a downturn to buy back in. https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-diversification-51578691352

I personally will probably just hold onto my shares and buy more during a dip, but considering their one-year growth of 86%, there is a good argument for seeing AAPL shares as expensive.

Kyle’s Portfolio

IGV (iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF) – 46%
VGT (Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF) – 26.3%
AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.) – 8.2%
AAPL (Apple, Inc.) – 7.4%
ITA (iShares US Aerospace and Defense ETF) – 4.5%
BA (The Boeing Company) – 2.3%
IAU (iShares Gold Trust ETF) – 1.7%
PTON (Peloton Interactive, Inc.) – I only have 2 shares, just for fun. 

Kyle’s Rules for Investing

Since I started investing in 2010 I have had some successes and many failures along the way. As a way to protect myself from speculation and “get rich quick” investments, I came up with a list of rules that I try to follow. Please know that these are not hard and fast, and there will be occasions to break from them. However, using them as guidelines has proven successful for me, and if I am planning on deviating from this strategy, I will have a concrete way to evaluate just how successful my deviation was by referring back to the rule I broke in the first place.

Here are my 11 rules:

  1. There are two ways to lose money in the stock market: 1) Selling below the value at which you bought.  2) The company in which you invested goes bankrupt
  2. Do not sell below market value
  3. Do not purchase stock in a company that is likely to go bankrupt
  4. Use time as a hedge against uncertainty
  5. Buy frequently, sell infrequently
  6. Avoid unsolicited “stock tips”
  7. Do not try to “time the market”, instead buy at regular intervals. “Time in market beats timing the market”.
  8. Develop a budget to determine how much you should invest each paycheck, then invest that much each paycheck
  9. Track your progress daily to determine trends and top and bottom performers
  10. Shop for stocks like you shop for groceries: look for deals and avoid “buying at eye-level”
  11. Grow your wealth when you are young, preserve your wealth when you grow old